Israel and the United States are preparing for a potential Iranian attack on Israel, as efforts to secure a ceasefire in Gaza intensify ahead of the expected resumption of formal negotiations this week.
Mediators have urged Israel and Hamas to return to the negotiating table in a renewed push to strike a ceasefire deal after the talks risked being derailed by the recent assassinations of Hezbollah and Hamas leaders which Iran and its Lebanese proxy have vowed to avenge.
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Negotiations are set to resume in the Egyptian capital Cairo or the Qatari capital Doha on Thursday. Last week, the United States, Egypt and Qatar – key mediators in talks between Israel and Hamas – said they will use the meeting to present a “final bridging proposal” and urged both sides to attend.
A major Iranian attack reprisal against Israel could risk disrupting the ceasefire talks that US officials have said were at an advanced stage prior to the assassination of Hamas’ political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, which Iran blamed on Israel. Israel hasn’t confirmed or denied responsibility.
In a joint statement Sunday evening, France, Germany and the United Kingdom endorsed the calls for the warring parties to strike a deal, saying “there can be no further delay” given the simmering threat of a regional conflagration.
The White House said Monday that it shares Israel’s concerns and expectations about an attack from Iran in the coming days, pointing to increased American force posture in the region as preparation for an Iranian reprisal.
“It’s difficult to ascertain, at this particular time, if there is an attack by Iran and its proxies what that would look like,” National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said.
But State Department deputy spokesperson Vedant Patel said in a separate press briefing Monday: “We fully expect these talks to continue to move forward.” Patel would not say outright who the US believes is the biggest obstacle to achieving a deal, but said that the onus is on Hamas to agree to a ceasefire.
Israel said it will send a delegation to the Thursday talks, but Hamas hasn’t confirmed its attendance, even if it has signaled that it still wants a deal.
Following Haniyeh’s assassination, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Haniyeh’s death would “not pass in vain,” and its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned that “blood vengeance” for the killing is “certain.”
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian furthered those threats on Monday, telling a Vatican official in a phone call that the assassination warrants Iran’s right to “self defense” and to “respond to an aggressor,” Iranian state news agency IRNA reported.
There have been some indications that Iran may abandon plans to attack Israel if a ceasefire deal is reached. But the country’s mission to the United Nations said on Saturday that Tehran’s retaliation to Israel’s suspected killing of Haniyeh is “totally unrelated to the Gaza ceasefire,” adding that it has a right to self-defense.
The US and Israel continued preparations for that scenario over the weekend. US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin ordered a guided missile submarine, the USS Georgia, to the Middle East and accelerated the arrival of a carrier strike group to the region, the Pentagon said Sunday evening. The US also released $3.5 billion to Israel to spend on US weapons and military equipment, months after it was appropriated by Congress. And on Monday, the Israeli military suspended vacation flights for permanent personnel in anticipation of an attack.
Iran’s UN mission said it hopes that its attack on Israel “will be timed and conducted in a manner not to the detriment of the potential ceasefire.”
“Direct and intermediary official channels to exchange messages have always existed between Iran and the United States, the details of which both parties prefer to remain untold,” it added.
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